Energy planning based on national rather than economic interests

Author: Geadis Geadi

The article was hosted in the newspaper Simerini

The new major issue that will be raised, as it seems, in the dialogue of the proven wrong talks at the Federation base, is that of the extraction of Natural Gas. Especially after DISAKEL's tragic retreat to the occupation leader's demand for correction of the "mistake".

When, for a school brochure, the leaders of the two major parties resorted to the occupied territories to apologize to the occupation leader, with Averof Neophytou even shamelessly visiting him in the so-called presidential palace (and let him deny it), it is clear that he will demand even more in the near future. If we also consider Erdogan's victory in the referendum for constitutional change, with which he concentrates powers in his person, but also the division that it has brought to the people of Turkey, it is very likely that he will find ways to externalize this instability, a tactic that Turkey has been following for a long time. Cyprus is one of the easiest fields for Turkey, since it will have reduced to non-existent losses both in the military sector, since our maritime and air deterrent power is non-existent, and in the political sector, since it sees that Hellenism in general, through its governments, hesitates to do the obvious to "put a stop to its coughing." After all, as is known, Turkey considers the Republic of Cyprus to be "defunct", while it believes that part of the Cypriot EEZ belongs to it. Thus, by creating challenges within the demarcated Exclusive Economic Zone, it aims to challenge our sovereign rights.

At the same time, however, it aims to exert pressure on the talks for its own benefit, while at the same time Erdogan wants to satisfy his followers, namely the Grey Wolves, whom he needs on his side to re-claim the presidency with claims in 2019. On the other hand, the Republic of Cyprus suffers in matters of maritime defense, since for so many years it has failed to create absolutely nothing, although it should have been our main concern, if one considers that the maritime area is much larger than the land area. The absence of deterrent power and the lack of any resistance on the part of the Republic of Cyprus, which seems helpless to react, led to today's results. That is, in a barrage of provocations from Turkey against Cyprus, with NAVTEX repeaters for military exercises with live fire in an area west and southwest of Paphos and commitments of areas a few miles outside Cypriot territorial waters, off the coast of Larnaca and Limassol.

The goal is clear: To overturn Nicosia's energy plans and cancel the planned drilling of the summer, as it has done again in the recent past. Besides, as is known, in realist political thinking, the sovereignty of a state is not enough to be confirmed on paper but also requires the existence of power. Energy developments in the region are underway, with the Israeli Minister of Energy recently stating to Bloomberg that plans are progressing for the construction of a natural gas pipeline from Israel to Turkey, which will pass through Cyprus even without its approval, as the pipeline will pass through Cyprus' EEZ and not through its territory, and it may be ready by the summer. On the other hand, despite all the reactions, Europe wants Turkey tied to its chariot for energy and control reasons, since Greece and Cyprus seem unable to exploit the instability in Turkey-EU relations, while on the other hand Turkey wants the EU for economic reasons. It is not prepared to let Russia tow Turkey into its own sphere of influence. The vitally important Southeastern Mediterranean cannot leave the US indifferent either, due to the existence of huge deposits and the Suez Canal. At the same time, they cannot abandon Turkey in the arms of Russia, since, as is known, Turkey is completely energy dependent on Russia, which is why they will make every effort to prevent this phenomenon, in order to win on the geostrategic and geopolitical chessboard of the region. Thus, they will attempt to channel Natural Gas to Turkey through other routes. As Ms. Katerina Eliade rightly states in her article on the Cyprus problem (09/04/17), the “solution” to the Cyprus problem will pave the way for cheap Natural Gas from the Cypriot-Israeli fields to Turkey, but also through Turkey to Europe, which also wants to become energy independent from Russia. After all, this is why the American ExxonMobil came to Cyprus in collaboration with Qatar Petroleum, which, let us note, is a state-owned company. Qatar, for those who do not know, is a close ally and friendly neighboring country of Turkey, while it is worth mentioning that in April 2016 they also signed a military cooperation agreement, under which the Turkish armed forces would create their first military base abroad, and more specifically in Qatar.

In fact, the newspaper "Milliyet" in its relevant publication states that the Turkish Base in Qatar will be the largest after the American one, while under the agreement the Turkish Armed Forces will undertake the training of the Qatari Army. Furthermore, the then Prime Minister of Turkey, Davutoğlu, stated at the time that "Turkey does not leave any friendly country that has trusted it alone" and stressed that "it will not hesitate to stand by its side". Besides, the presence of ExxonMobil in Cyprus is additional pressure on the Cypriot Government for an immediate solution to the Cyprus problem, but not for the benefit of the Greeks of Cyprus, but for the benefit of international interests, which care so much about our future. Regarding the participation of ENI and TOTAL in the EEZ of the Republic of Cyprus, it facilitates the management and exploitation of Natural Gas, if it is identified, while at the same time increasing our options. ENI's leading presence in the Egyptian EEZ is an element that we must exploit for further collaborations and upgrading our power. As Professor Dr. Theodore Tsakiris rightly states in his relevant article on Hydrocarbons (18/04/17), "a pipeline that would connect block 9 with block 12, ending at the Damietta terminal, would be the fastest and least costly option for the development of "Aphrodite" in 2015.

This option continues to be the most appropriate alternative for exploiting the unique gas field in the event of a second discovery.” Which of course invalidates the claims of all those who rabidly argue that the creation of a pipeline to Turkey is the most economically advantageous option. Such a mistake will literally make us hostages in the hands of Turkey and its broader interests. Because, as Mr. Tsakiris continues, “block 6 is particularly important geopolitically as it is the first block of the Cypriot EEZ that is granted for hydrocarbon exploration, while it is claimed by Turkey on its own behalf.

For this very reason, we should expect that Turkey will attempt to react in a more intense and operationally upgraded manner compared to 2014, in the event that the Latin alliance attempts to proceed with drilling in the second half of 2018. "Therefore, there should be immediate awareness, proceeding with the necessary plans and alliances that will protect our national interests. We should not under any circumstances seek the most economical option, as such a thing constitutes a disastrous mistake, especially in an anarchic international system, in which the power of a state and geopolitical interests play a decisive role, and without overlooking the fact that we are in a region that resembles a volcano ready to erupt at any time and moment, with a neighboring country that has been coveting our lands for centuries. Therefore, the weaknesses of Greece and Cyprus, which cannot currently play a decisive role in the region, as I mentioned above, should be combated immediately. The moves should be such that they will change the balance of power, to the benefit of the interests of Hellenism and will make it a dominant player in the region. After all, if you do not have power to put forward and the international powers do not see a strong, powerful, serious state in front of them, from which they can benefit and satisfy their own interests, then no one will count on you. This, unfortunately, is the law of the jungle of the international system, where the strong survive. It is an absolute necessity that we immediately proceed with alliances with countries in the region, but also with countries with which we have common interests. Somewhere here we should all ask ourselves about the lack of interest from Russian companies, especially since Russia should have been one of the countries with which we should be building our relationship, especially after the Ukrainian crisis and the current situation in the region, which increase its interest.

We should also not ignore the Israeli factor, especially since there are two schools of thought on energy issues, on which we must exert intense pressure, such as for example on the EASTMED pipeline and the already existing cooperation in the EEZ of the Republic of Cyprus, so as to prevent the creation of a pipeline to Turkey and to secure the interests of Cyprus. Energy planning should be considered as a must and the options for creating a Natural Gas Liquefaction (LNG) station and the creation of the EASTMED pipeline, which will energetically connect Cyprus with Greece and then with Italy, through which Natural Gas will be channeled to Europe, in which we could involve another important energy factor in the region, such as Egypt, for example.

The criteria on which our planning should be based should be national and not economic, which is why any choice should have as a prerequisite the protection of our national interests. Unfortunately, if we do not act based on national criteria, then we will inevitably become a hostage of the neo-sultan Erdogan and a satellite of Turkey at the end of the day, with tragic results for Hellenism.